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Nearly 37,400 new aircraft required over 20 years

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October 2018

Nearly 37,400 new aircraft required over 20 years

The world’s passenger fleet will more than double to 48,000 aircraft in 20 years with traffic growing at a resilient 4.4% per year, driving a need for 37,390 new passenger and freighter aircraft according to Airbus’ new Global Market Forecast 2018-2037.

Growth drivers include private consumption increasing 2.4 times in emerging economies, higher disposable incomes and a near doubling of the middle classes globally. Emerging countries will account for over 60% of economic growth, with trips per capita to multiply 2.5 times for these nations. Combined with evolving airline business models and continuing liberalisation, the growing scale of air transportation will lead to an increasing resilience to regional slowdowns.

Greater aircraft range and capacity through technological developments allow airlines the flexibility to explore new business opportunities whilst maintaining focus on cost reduction.

For the 2018-2037 Global Market Forecast, Airbus addresses aircraft segmentation in the Small (S), Medium (M), Large (L) and Extra-Large (XL) categories to better reflect the use of aircraft within and between market segments. 

Looking at the four segmentations more closely, in the Small segment typically covering the space where most of today’s single-aisle aircraft compete, there is a requirement for 28,550 new aircraft, representing more than three-quarters of total expected demand. In the Medium segment, for missions requiring additional capacity and range flexibility, represented by smaller widebodies and longer-range single-aisle aircraft, Airbus forecasts demand for 5,480 passenger and freight aircraft. For additional capacity and range flexibility, in the Large segment, there is a need for 1,760 aircraft. In the Extra-Large segment, typically reflecting high capacity and long range missions by the largest aircraft types, Airbus forecasts demand for 1,590 aircraft.

The Airbus product portfolio has the right offer in each of these size segments. The addition of the A220 enlarges our offer in the Small segment. With the combination of the A321LR (the A321neo with long range capability) and the A330neo Airbus has the right aircraft, right now, for the market demand in the Medium segment. The Large and Xtra-Large segments are addressed with the growing A350XWB and A380 fleets.

Nearly 37,400 aircraft will be required over the next 20 years

Of the 37,390 new aircraft required, 70% are for growth and 30% will replace older generation less fuel efficient aircraft which will result in a total fleet to 48,000 aircraft globally, of which 3,375 aircraft are destined for Middle East and 1,469 aircraft for Africa. Stay tuned for special GMF issues on the Middle East & Africa regions.

Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes) | 20-year forecast period

For more information please contact:
Afshin Jahanshahi
Marketing Manager - Airbus Africa & Middle East