Airbus GMF 2017-2036: New Horizons
Passenger traffic grew impressively again in 2016, with 6.3% year over year growth, supporting an increase in the passenger fleet of aircraft over 100 seats to over 19,000 aircraft, and also supporting record levels of deliveries from the manufacturers.
Passenger traffic continues to grow
• Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) grew 6.3% in 2016, as compared to 2015, according to ICAO figures.
• This represents an impressive 3.7 billion passengers carried by air in 2016.
• Over half of the world’s tourists who travel across international borders each year are transported by air.
• Air passengers benefited from oil prices which remained relatively low, with airlines able to choose
between stimulating the market through lower yields and therefore ticket prices, and their margins.
• Air traffic continues to prove its resilience to slow economic growth by outperforming global GDP,
demonstrating the world’s appreciation of the benefits aviation brings.
• For the next 20 years, the Airbus GMF forecasts a 4.4% global annual air traffic growth, despite some
downward revision of future economic growth by a number of forecasters in several regions of the world. In our forecast the first decade will enjoy a 4.9% increase per year, with 4.1% average annual growth for the last decade, a lower figure but growth in those years based on absolute traffic numbers higher than today.
• Asia-Pacific will lead world traffic by 2036, with a three fold increase in the traffic serving this region by the end of the forecast period.
• Traffic between emerging countries is forecast to grow at 6.2% per annum, and will represent a growing share of air traffic, from 29% of world traffic in 2016 up to 40% by 2036.
• Domestic China will become the largest traffic flow before the end of the forecast period. Domestic Chinese traffic is forecast to almost quadruple, with Domestic USA increasing by 50% from an already high base.
• The three major flows connecting Western Europe are all expected to develop: Western-Europe – USA, Intra-Western Europe and Western-Europe – Middle East forecast to grow 1.8, 1.6 and 2.5 times respectively.
• Amongst the Top 20 traffic flows, 50% will involve Asia-Pacific and 25% will involve the Middle East.
• In 2016, over 140 countries added 5% or more capacity (ASKs) than in 2015. Of these, nearly 80 countries added more than 10%. This combined with traffic growth above the long term trend is driving demand for new aircraft today and into the future.
• More than simply adding capacity, the world’s airlines are also increasingly efficient in the way that they are using aircraft. Average load factors, that is the proportion of the seats filled in the aircraft, are at an all-time high at around 80%. Allowing for seasonality it will be difficult to move this mark significantly higher.
• Taking into account growth in average aircraft size, increased average utilization levels as well as higher average load factors, aircraft are an impressive 50% more productive in terms of traffic (RPKs) today than 20 years ago. A significant improvement coming from both the airlines’ operational efficiency and the state of the art aircraft being delivered today.
Source: ICAO, OAG, Airbus
The world’s passenger aircraft fleet above 100 seats is set to more than double in the next 20 years to over 40,000 planes as traffic is set to grow at 4.4 percent per year, according to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast 2017-2036.
Over this period, increasing numbers of first time flyers, rising disposable income spent on air travel, expanding tourism, industry liberalisation, new routes and evolving airline business models are driving a need for 34,170 passenger and 730 freighter aircraft worth a combined total of US$5.3 trillion. Over 70 percent of new units are single aisle with 60 percent for growth and 40 percent for replacement of less fuel efficient aircraft.
In the twin aisle segment, such as the A330 Family, A350 XWB Family and the A380, Airbus forecasts a requirement for some 10,100 aircraft valued at US$2.9 trillion.
In the single aisle segment, such at the A320neo Family, Airbus forecasts a requirement for some 24,810 aircraft valued at US$2.4 trillion. Airlines adding capacity by upsizing to the largest single aisle, the A321, will find even more business opportunities with the A321neo thanks to its range up to 4,000nm and unbeatable fuel efficiency. In 2016, the A321 represented over 40 percent of single aisle deliveries and over 60 percent of single aisle orders.
To read more on the 2017-2036 Airbus Global Market Forecast, click here.